/r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 211, Part 1 (Thread #352)

  1. I wonder if any scrawny Russian trolls spreading Kremlin propaganda on various outlets will end up being conscripted. Imagine a career change from "propaganda poster on YouTube comment sections" to "cannon fodder for one man's imperialist delusions."

  2. it's been the same thing for the last six months. Just cause Putin said he's totally 100% double dare not bluffing doesn't change any of the other nuclear saber raddling we've heard for the last half year.

  3. If he launches he needs to understand that not everyone will die. At the first opportunity he will be pulled out of his bunker.

  4. The front is massive. There’s tons of roads and trucks can largely drive off road through steppe land in the summer.

  5. It's been quite well established that rail lines aren't hard to sabotage, but they are just as a easy to fix again.

  6. He wants to keep the rioters away from him and try to keep the larger cities from knowing the extent of mobilization

  7. It's not that complicated. The power structure of Russian politics resides in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Putin will conscript from those places as little as possible.

  8. My wife’s uncle, who is 45, just got drafted to go to Ukraine. From an eastern region. Once he picks up the paperwork he has two hours to gather his items. They are trying to move quick. Getting desperate.

  9. Awful. Awful awful awful. Putin and pals deserve nothing less than the most painful and drawn out deaths for the misery they’re inflicting on Ukrainians, their other neighbors and their own fellow Russians. May every rich and powerful Russian fall from a window in an infinite loop

  10. Ukr is getting really close to Svatove too. Which I think is another big supply bottleneck like Kupiansk. So I think if Ukr gets Svotove there may be another big retreat by Russia in the Lyman, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk direction. Like what happened east of Kharkiv when Ukr got Kupiansk back. At leat that's what I hope.

  11. It's likely coincidental. Minorities are going to be in poorer parts of the country and he will start with those areas because they have less means to resist (and I'd wager, less access to information until it's too late).

  12. People are saying Putin does the best ethnic cleansing. One guy came up to me, tears in his eyes, and says, "Sir..." -- he actually called me "Sir", with tears in his eyes, let me tell you -- "Sir, Putin really does the best ethnic cleansing!" Yeah, I tell you, that Putin he ethnically cleans like no one ever has ethnically cleansed before that's for sure!

  13. He mobilized because they couldn't get enough volunteers anymore to replenish the losses and he can't afford to lose. Once mobilized doing a little bit of ethnical cleansing is just a plus for him.

  14. That would be in character for sure, but Russia has enough of a demographic crisis already they can't afford that shit, at least not now.

  15. Hardly a theory, it's been the modus operandi for over a century. Bonus is that it keeps people in the cities, with the money and actual real (local) elections from seeing the effects of the war; it's "just something that affects dung farmers in the east".

  16. Probably a week if that. They need anyone that can pick up a shovel over there immediately to start digging trenches and doing menial military work to fortify what they already hold before the snow starts to fall.

  17. Most said end of November. But I would say end of October some will appear. If they get the 2 week training promised to them. Maybe sooner. But I’d bet batches of few thousand by end of October. Some will be on post outside of front line so the conscripts and those who have been serving can go to the front line. But Russia will probably reinforce some lines with these mobilizers as cannon fodder.

  18. People put up with him if living standards improved (it did due to high energy prices) and he made Russia strong again, he bluffed the second part pretty well until reality was exposed in Ukraine.

  19. NATO is not going to do jack unless Russia strikes NATO territory. NATO is not going to declare WW3 if Russia strikes Ukrainian territory, it's a defensive block after all.

  20. Keep your eyes on Kherson. That river ain’t getting any warming. I really think we could see records broken in the 200m breaststroke any day now.

  21. Honestly, I did, if only because a friend of mine was intimately familiar with Russia and it's military. I knew they were not as strong as people thought, but she really laid it out for me just how bad things were. Her analysis changed my own view from Ukraine being occupied and the Russians eventually losing a ten to twenty year guerilla war with Ukraine the victor to Russian forces collapsing within a year or two of an invasion with Ukraine's military remaining largely intact the whole time

  22. Once this is over I wonder if we'll see a grand total for how many have surrendered. I wonder how many have called their "surrender hotline"

  23. Hopefully they can distribute that info around properly; I know they've used pamphlet "bombs" but no idea if those are effective in actually reaching anyone.

  24. So crazy it might just work! Under new rules they would face harsh punishments for surrender (which probably is the case for any POW, not just voluntary surrender). Why not give them an option at new life?

  25. I am back, and will resume daily combat loss updates. My last update was on September 13, so the increases in Russian Combat losses below represent 9 days of combat. For example, in 9 days, Ukraine estimates 2,210 Russians KIA (that's an average of 246 Russians killed per day).

  26. almost 2k in a week, no wonder Russia is grabbing every man of the street, because it's the only way to sustain that!

  27. Our only hope is if he gets assassinated from within. That’s the only way this will end without nukes… unless I’ve misjudged putin’s narcissism

  28. Reddit can do as many logical statements as they want, but the reality is this authority is up to the leadership of a country that thought they could wage a 3 day war to conquer Ukraine.

  29. People don't make sense. Experts who study human behavior have known this for decades. As a species, we're largely rational, but that rationality comes with a long list of caveats and exceptions. Many of them involve group dynamics and personal mortality.

  30. What’s the most widely accepted total loss estimates for Russia at this point? 80,000+? Did they lose half their fucking invasion force?

  31. I don’t know if we really have one. The last US estimate from a month or two ago was ~30,000 dead, with the typical combat math meaning there was another 90,000 at various states of injured. The Ukrainians have something like ~55,000. Which I could believe with some of the stories we’ve been told of untrained medics, abandoned wounded, lack of supplies, lack of medevac, and the completely reasonable act of killing men being taken prisoner by Ukraine with a rocket launcher. That said I don’t think it follows typical combat math for those very reasons. I think it’s much more like it’s 1:1 or 1:2 dead to wounded. 1:1 gives us 110,000 casualties which is about the same as the old US numbers. 1:2 gives us 165,000 which is over half of the original force and estimated to be about half total.

  32. Something like that. It gets murky when you try to figure out how to count press-ganged seperatists, or mercenaries.

  33. I listed to a podcast about good ol nicky.. i'm listening and though, oh shit, this sounds exactly like what putin ia getting himself into. Starting a war, failing, dismissing generals, lead military yourself.

  34. Young people. Everyone who has military experience, which is literally almost everyone because there's compulsory military training in Russia.

  35. Technically they are only mobilizing reservists and anyone who has previously served. In reality they are forcibly conscripting everyone they arrest at protests.

  36. People are focused on nukes for obvious reasons but I am more intrigued by anti satellite and cyber warfare; if those weapons get used it will be something to experience for sure. Lol people here will probably find out when whatever live thread we're on doesn't refresh. Just a lot of angry people tapping their phones until they realize their TV's don't even turn on and their cars don't start.

  37. It's not often a comment makes me go "who posted this bullshit" and actually click a username, but the amazing thing is I immediateltly recognized your username from last time this exact same thing happened. Congratulations I guess.

  38. Putin is an evil little shit. He's going to throw those people to the slaughter, and then try and pin the barbarity on Ukraine.

  39. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/22/russias-tatarstan-bans-reservists-from-leaving-as-mobilization-underway-a78866

  40. They need to realize that fighting the officer behind them will be a better bet then the Ukrainians in front of them. They are probably going to die, but the Russian officers are cowards and stupid as dirt, the Ukrainians are determined and out for blood.

  41. Lavrov ( @ UN Security Council Meeting today ) is a coward that couldn't even sit through criticism of his peers while his people die by the thousands in a war of imperial aggression he supports. What a gross utterly disgraceful human being.

  42. Enough of the Russian reinforcements. I think we need to look past this war to some real solutions to the upcoming situation. Ukraine needs to bring some modern solutions to the table for this issue of human wave conscript attacks.

  43. Mobilization has been on the table since the start and Ukraine, NATO and other allies know this. They probably have already 3 projections and plans on how this might unfold.

  44. There is no solution here. Ukraine is happy to turn the Russian soldiers into prisoners or fertilizer if it means protecting itself, while Russia is just not moving on this.

  45. Do you want to know a modern solution? Cluster munitions for HIMARS that can cover a wide area. A wave of troops Russia sends won't be capable of surviving this, it will be incredibly demoralizing on those who do and those who know.

  46. Before inventing the AK, Mikhail Kalashnikov designed agricultural tools and machinery. In light of what you just pointed out, perhaps Mr K never stopped

  47. Every time I see one of those tallies of Russian losses I think of the song “Body Count” by This Bike is a Pipe Bomb. That was about Vietnam. The chorus is:

  48. I mean the russians supported putin and they refuse to stand up to him shouldnt they feel the bite of his stupidity?.

  49. That seems shortsighted. You want your annexed territories to have your back, especially when the enemy youre fighting their former countrymen.

  50. So I know everyone has been talking about tactical nuclear weapons and such, but reading Putin's words again, I wonder if he's more suggesting some kind of nuclear plant disaster or meltdown. What with that whole bit about "the rose winds can change and blow in their direction" bit. We've had that whole thing with the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia plant going on in the background, remember?

  51. He couldn't pull a deliberate Chernobyl because Zaporizhzhia NPP is a very different powerplant. It would still be a nuclear disaster, but on a much smaller scale. Closer to the scale of Fukushima, and people are back to living there.

  52. I think they are just going to put a ton of Russian men in the territories they currently hold then claim that Ukraine is committing war crimes when their army pushes into the territories and starts taking out the conscripts they sent to the occupied territories that Russia is trying to claim as their own.

  53. When has Putin, or for that matter all Russian politicians, ever told truth, honest and verifiable statements throughout this tragedy?

  54. Ryan McBeth, a former anti-tank infantry guy turned cybersecurity dude who has quickly become one of my favorite Youtubers put out another excellent video wherein he did some slick detective work to prove that Russians are lying about Ukrainians targeting civilian areas with artillery, and that the carnage indeed came from the Russian forces:

  55. Perun does a weekly 1 hour PowerPoint lecture on different aspects of the conflict. Im genuinely excited for each release despite it being generally dry content to the rest of my youtube feed.

  56. Then it's time for them to step up and overthrow the cowardly dictator most of them have been happy to support until now. It's highly unlikely that he can or will be removed by outside actors, the change needs to be from within Russia.

  57. Just seeing mobilization videos of police dragging military aged men off the street and out of class shows a desperation that I wouldn't associate with getting 300k conscripts from a country of 146 million people.

  58. Good point. But if it was two million, or three. It’s not like they can hide and say “surprise”! Even if Russia didn’t have significant logistical issues.

  59. Almost makes me wonder how accurate their claim of having a population of 146 million is right now, considering how much else has proven to be lies.

  60. Great way to get people to fight for you, drag them to a war.. These guys will probably give up 1st chance they get..

  61. Russians seem oddly silent about “protecting the Russian speaking population from Nazis” within their own borders.

  62. Yep, but lets not forget they wanted all of Ukraine. They just flopped so hard they moved the goalposts early on.

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