/r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 206, Part 1 (Thread #346)

  1. I just saw a tweet from a russian troll/miltary russian reporter about some fighting inside Kherson.

  2. Woah. Street fighting in Kherson. The fact that Russia has downplayed as a minor operation makes me think something important is going on.

  3. Remember when Ukraine crossed a river with losing a whole battalion and it was a non-issue because they know how to cross a river

  4. Let's see what this very influential lunatic wrote after losing his daughter on that car explosion a few weeks ago... (for reference, Dugin is the guy who wrote

  5. This childish foot stamping tirade is comical. I will reply with the same gravitas as was used in the above missive.

  6. The curious thing is that he wants to spare the Russians from being sent to the front but calls people from Nicaragua to Cuba to come to fight.

  7. Russia doesn’t have generals, not the way most countries do. They have political cronies who point at things on maps and tell soldiers to take them.

  8. Must be pretty disappointing for military experts to see Russia in action make a bunch of boots look like season veterans and master tacticians.

  9. It's honestly bizarre watching Russia slam their head against Bakhmut for months without a change of strategy. Mark Hertling commented on this as well in a recent podcast: the Russian army is incapable of operationally adapting and so it's ok to say what they're doing wrong.

  10. Some interesting news going on over the last couple days about the rest of the countries in the soviet sphere of influence starting to destabilize in various ways. Anywhere that Russia was once providing security is starting to see rapid escalation in tensions with neighbors. You’d have to think that Moldova is taking an awfully hard look at Transnistria right now.

  11. This is one of the most dangerous points in all of this. Fighting breaking out all over the place can lead to a large war if more people get involved.

  12. ...A bullpup 'sniper rifle' chambered for 12.7 SS. With iron sights. I'm starting to develop a suspicion about why that thing is so rarely seen, and it has nothing to do with production costs.

  13. Maybe the FSB was hoping to liquidate a few Ukrainian generals the way Ukraine liquidated the Russian generals a few months ago. Unfortunately for them the Ukrainian army has secure communications unlike their clown car outfit.

  14. That's a very interesting piece of kit, have to wonder why that would even be in a warzone. That is typically useful for other things than outright war.

  15. Ukraine had the perfect response to the "peace plan" by Mexico's president who had the bright idea to propose a ceasefire for five years just as the Russians were losing.

  16. Well, if Ukraine can't have ATACMS because the US doesn't want to escalate...clearly the logical answer is

  17. No way Putin can mobilize. For one, it probably would do more harm that good. Russia has shown zero awareness on sustainability - they’ve been just showing bodies into the furnace. No unit rotation. It took the US close to a year to spin up an ID from scratch in WWII. Highly doubtful Russia can identify, equip, and the train hundreds of thousands. The USSR lost 15k dead in Afghanistan over close to a decade…Russia (with significantly less population) has lost probably double that since February, maybe more. Most of those dead are poor minorities from the East. If Moscow and St Petersburg see that kind of body count, Putin’s reign will end and he knows it.

  18. That's a great thread. I think on the ATACMS topic much of the arm-chair general insistence on it being provided is based on a shallow analysis of only the system capabilities while the real world requires a more sober and deep analysis like he provides in that thread.

  19. I think the other reason Putin is opposing mobilization is that the Russian government would have to answer some very hard questions about where there gear and reserves are. The people in Moscow still think most of their army is intact. They don't know it was over marketed and has been worn down through corruption & attrition. They can still keep up the illusion of power in Russia once the illusion breaks though...

  20. It's worth noting that these things have an estimated unit cost of approximately 38K USD. It's pretty expensive kit to just have lying around in a stack of wooden crates outdoors.

  21. Will be very interesting to see what happens in Belgorod. Crazy to think that there is discontent there after going through only a tiny fraction of what Kharkiv as gone through.

  22. I wonder if their cry for help gets them arrested. They want a peaceful life and the shelling to stop? Your neighbors want that too ya know. This war is so senseless. Stay safe Saber!

  23. Where did you hear about the "protest" Saber? I'm interested if we'll see some coverage of it tomorrow.

  24. I am convinced that just before Russia finally releases its elite forces it has been holding back and retakes Crimea, Donbas, and then takes all of Ukraine - Putin will announce a good will strategic withdrawal from Ukraine.

  25. They're all out of goodwill. That's last months cope. It'll be a strategic regrouping just like with the Kharkiv counter offensive.

  26. Not all of Europe is as badly prepared as Russia would have the world believe, sure it's going to get expensive but it's not worse than the pandemic, so yeah I'm not really all that worried.

  27. At this point, I would like to ask russians to buy a big mac, watch the news on a South Korean television and enjoy what they will likely never have in this generation have again.

  28. Russians should also be fortifying their homes, they’re about to see a dramatic increase in domestic crime when their economy collapses

  29. Sadly alot of that gas/oil is still Russian, just though a different country. India buying cheap Russian gas and selling it for near twice its price to Germany doesn't suddenly make it Indian gas for example, its still Russian gas.

  30. Australia's acting Prime Minister was just asked about banning Russian tourists ... suggested the focus would stay on targeted sanctions against individual Russians but didn't commit either way.

  31. Given that AUS is not a #1 destination for us and not many Russians have families or anyone else there really, I think them going case by case won’t be that much of an issue. Otherwise they could make tourist visas bit harder to obtain, however given how it is hard for a Russian to get into AUS anyway, be it as tourist trip or job - I doubt that will be needed.

  32. Russian Twitter trolls are jizzing their pants and spamming Kherson fight as taking out SBU. So that means the opposite probably happened.

  33. The secret isn't to believe the opposite of whatever russians/russian media are saying, but to completely ignore anything they say.

  34. My main worry is that (like every time) Russia will respond with missiles lobbed at something, literally anything, they think will get them a "win" when faced with a setback.

  35. I hope Putin tries to talk about the most important issues of the day, only for everybody to look at him like a fart, then ignore everything he said, and talk about the least important things possible.

  36. Has russia ever made an official statement claiming they want to take over the whole of ukraine? Ive seen statements claiming they want the east and the south, but thought i remembered seeing something about full annexation. Anyone have a link on this?

  37. I mean, it's obvious that's what they were aiming for back in February what with their attempted blitz towards Kyiv.

  38. The televised speech Putin gave when he launched the special military operation is your best bet. Pretty much sums up his Tzarist ambitions to destroy Ukrainian culture, language and install a puppet Government in Kyiv.

  39. I’m not sure what you mean by official, but Putin stated in the first few days of the war he aimed to decapitate Ukraine government and then take all its land. Then there was some convoluted bullshit about installing a Lukashenko style leader after that.

  40. Surprise attack to the capital to set up a puppet government is always the first step to annexation. Look at Belarus putin is not even hiding the fact he is gonna annex it via "referendum" at some point.

  41. official statement? not really, officially they are on a special military operation to liberate the republics and get rid of nazis. Or something.

  42. If you are Zelenski would you just drive back the Russians to pre-invasion lines that held since 2014? Ofcourse not, this is the time to take back the whole thing, because once you settle for 'peace' the support and western toys will quickly dry up and we'll have round 3 in a few years.

  43. A push into Russia proper would be disastrous. A big factor in the failure of Russian troops has been their morale, none of them really believe in the whole "Eastern Ukraine is Russia" bullshit and don't really want to be there. Ukrainian forces on the other hand do want to be there.

  44. At the end of the day: whoever controls Crimea, can dictate the future of Ukraine. (recall how easy it was for Russia to invade from there).

  45. Heard something today about the Iranian drones the Russians have been bringing in are actually proving effective. Anyone know anything about this? Any sort of response in the works?

  46. There was a report yesterday about how they've proven difficult to shoot down. Don't know about overall effectiveness though.

  47. US is sending counter-UAV equipment and reportedly Ukraine captured one that failed to detonate. I assume they're going to send it to Israel as a good will gesture seeing as this is happening:

  48. Nah, they're kamikaze drones so you can't really use them more than once, Russia doesn't have that many of them, and

  49. With all the consternation exhibited by the elites and political class about Izyum, don’t they understand Mariupol is much worse? Both due to the longer fighting and fact it is simply bigger. We just have not liberated Mariupol yet, once we have it will be a horror unseen since the killing fields of Cambodia or possibly the Rwandan genocide.

  50. The consternation is not just by the “elites”. Plus, any horror about Izyum shouldn’t take away from anything discovered in Mariupol in the future. Yesterday we experienced Bucha, today is Izyum, tomorrow will be Mariupol.

  51. I think they do understand Mariupol is going to be much worse, but at this point Mariupol is still kind of theoretical (since it hasn’t been liberated yet), while Izium is real and tangible and out in the open.

  52. “We”? We are not doing the fighting, Ukraine is not a football team and supporting Ukraine does not make us a “we” that’s a disrespectful sentiment for those actually giving their lives for their freedom.

  53. I understand your sentiment and I share your worries, but the comparison to Cambodia or Rwanda is a bit much. Rwanda was double and cambodia triple the victims than the total inhabitants Mariupol had before the war. Not to take away from the awful crimes that russia is committing or to downplay the atrocities, but I think It's important to differentiate a bit and not compare everything immediately to the worst genocides of the last century - it waters everything down instead of bringing attention to what is actually happening. and what is happening is terrible enough

  54. I am terrified of what we will find there. I also wonder whether Russians, still in control of that city, will do something to cover up what happened.

  55. I can’t wait to see what the truth is in Kherson. If Ukraine has somehow positioned itself in the city Russia may be done there

  56. Regardless, the Russian troops there are in an untenable position. Either slowly or quickly, Ukraine will push them out as their heavy equipment fails.

  57. Nobody who studies the mappings has seriously offered the opinion that Ukraine advanced to the city limits. This is either partisan activity (likely in small, isolated instances) or it's Russian-aligned groups.

  58. What's people's honest view on how this will somewhat end? Will we see Russian forces withdraw completely? A Russia in a full state of mobilisation? A ceasefire back and forth for the next number of years.

  59. I think Russia will keep trying the prisoners thing for a while and probably upping sign on bonuses for volunteers. I believe they have another round of conscriptions coming up in October as well so they’ll probably throw all of them. When that fails, then there will probably be full mobilization. Even if Ukraine pushes out Russia sometime next year, the Russians won’t stop as long as Putin or someone similar to him is in power. Russia seems hell bound and determined to waste what few young men they have in this current generation to taking over Ukraine. It’s monstrous.

  60. It will probably come through some kind of ceasefire, EX. Ukraine will push Russian Troops out entirely and force Russia into signing some kind of ceasefire or Vice versa.

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