Who do you think will win the governor’s race?

  1. The 538 model puts Oregon as the second most competitive governor's race in the country with Kotek winning 62 out of 100 times in their simulations.

  2. And that's why Johnson is drawing in the big donors. They're not dumb, they know she almost certainly can't win, but propping her up is the most likely route to the Republicans winning since they have no path to an outright majority of the vote.

  3. The other thing is, if you listen to the 538 podcast when they talk about these models, they're pretty fluid at this time. A lot of people give answers that will change closer to the election. Voters will get more information, campaigns will get better at appealing to the voters they need to, and people will stop paying attention to spoiler candidates like Johnson.

  4. It's Magical Thinking. It's the Third Party mirage. It's a bunch of voters who think that a Unicorn (neither Democrat nor Republican, but a Muggle like themselves) can ride in from the margins and fix Oregon's bullshit with a Bipartisan Hand Jive. I have no respect for those Magical Mirage Muggles -- duuuuude -- listen hard when they tell you what they think The Government They Hate can and cannot do for them. Wow.

  5. My mother met Drazen and asked her how she plans to balance her religion with politics. Drazen's response to her was (according to my mom); "You just let everyone know that you won't compromise on your religious beliefs".

  6. I can’t believe this race is this close after the loss of Roe v Wade - we’ve seen what other states with Republican leadership are doing to women.

  7. I almost impulse down-voted you at "you won't compromise on your religious beliefs" and had to remind myself that those aren't your words. Like, I get that people's personal beliefs color how they perceive the world, but come on man. You're not running the state for you, and you're not running the state specifically for the people who share your beliefs, you're running the state for all of the people who live there. That statement just puts a sour taste in my mouth.

  8. I hope she understands what that truly means. If she were to truly take her beliefs to heart there will be executions in the streets of people who have committed the sin of adultery. Unless she doesn't mean that one? And so long as we're cherry picking our beliefs, why has she chosen the ones she has, out of all those that are available within her faith?

  9. You should always be terrified of people who don't believe the exact same thing that you believe. This is typical of the petulant child that most liberals have become.

  10. Are you sure it's not because you enjoy seeing Oregon being a total shit hole? Kotek will continue with the exact same losing policies as her Democrat predicessors.

  11. I think Kotek will win but it will be close and Drazen has a chance. There is a real backlash against crime and uncontrolled homelessness right now, even in Portland.

  12. That’s a weird thing to say when it’s the left that wants to create and fund systems of resources to negate the need to turn to criminal activity. Our cities have been passing police budget increases behind the peoples back and without support and oh wow the problems aren’t getting magically fixed. Who should that be a wake up call to?

  13. They would still have to go through the court of appeals since or local court (in Idaho btw) decided that unless there’s enough beds they can’t ‘punish’ the homeless for trying to survive’. Can I get a hell yeah for the rule of law

  14. Hopefully Kotek. I’m not sold on her, but she seems better than Drazan and Johnson. With that said, I think this state needs either runoff elections, jungle primaries, or ranked choice in future elections to avoid this mess from repeating

  15. I sure hope Kotek. Drazan is scary. Her solution to forest fires on her website is quite literally “put out the fires” 🤦‍♂️

  16. Oh fuck why didn’t I think of that?? I’ve just been fighting them with more fire. It’s not…it’s not going well.

  17. Drazan is against the "let nature take its course" until it threatens structures, which is exactly what happened on the Bootleg Fire, and 500,000 acres later, they decided this wasn't a good strategy. That is where the "put out the fires" snippet came from.

  18. People who want to pat themselves on the back for pointing out problems and providing no solution other than bitching will "win".

  19. It's how we got Trump instead of the competent but maybe not super inspiring lady he ran against.

  20. For the past 10 years (20 really) the dems have pretty much run the show in Oregon. I don't think anyone is debating that, right? Sure you have the one offs like Richardson but by and large dem priorities have been enacted.

  21. Most likely Kotek but Johnson wouldn't be a factor if Democrats pulled their heads out of their ass on homelessness and crime.

  22. Yep. Oregonians tend to be progressive (of course), but when crime is high and livability is low, and people start to blame the party in charge, then some of those people may decide that their personal safety trumps any other issues.

  23. That's the thing I don't get. Nothing and no-one anywhere said "don't prosecute violence, theft, destruction, etc.,". I really can't draw any conclusion other than there's shenanigans going on in law enforcement and in the prosecutors' offices.

  24. Honest question, what do you want us to do about homelessness and crime? It's not exactly something we can fix without federal standards, because we get, both from voluntary and forced migration, homeless from red states.

  25. Johnson's opening statement from last nights debate has me a bit confused/concerned. "I believe in a woman's right to bare arms and a woman's right to bare children".

  26. I think Johnson was trying to reframe how gun rights are looked at in Oregon. She believes that both are constitutionally protected and vital for the safety of women.

  27. Cynicism is a vicious cycle where it leads to low expectations and people not getting involved.

  28. I hope Kotek, I really hope no one forgets Roe v Wade and the severe threat women are facing from Theocratic Republicans.

  29. Oregon laws are clear and iron clad. Drazan nor Johnson could do anything without the legislature

  30. I agree. Rank choice voting asap. But since we don’t yet, if climate is your concern (which it should be!) Kotek has to be the vote

  31. Kotek is the best of the three by far when it comes to climate change. The other two will actively enact policies to make that worse.

  32. Yup. DEMAND rank choice voting. Force the issue if you have to. As is, without that I'm not accepting any result except Kotek, the objectively least crappy option

  33. God help us if she wins. The one stating in ads that politicians are rotten to the core. She is a lifer rotten to the core not to mention being a religious zealot. No thank you. Betsy is an old lady playing politics.

  34. Hopefully Kotek. I have a uterus. I grew up in the South. I want to remain in control of my own body, that’s part of why I came here.

  35. I think Kotek will still end up winning the election when it comes down to it. I'm not sure there are a lot of people paying attention to this governor race right now and will most likely vote how they usually vote.

  36. I believe it will be Kotek. She seems to have the biggest advertising budget, which may mean she got the most donations, and therefor support? I dunno.

  37. Im almost afraid of candidates who get big funding. Whats the agenda? If big money is bankrolling you, I want nothing to do with you.

  38. Drazan will only win due to the fact that there are three candidates. Either way nothing much will change since the legislature will almost certainly remain democrat.

  39. I'd be nice if Kotek did more to distinguish herself from Kate Brown. I'm voting for Kotek, but truthfully I fear the same endless virtue signaling (with nothing to back it up) and despotic tendencies we saw with Brown (worse than worthless response to a public health crisis, that did little to save lives and everything to ruin many).

  40. It's amazing reading through the comments how many people commenting here know very little to almost nothing about the candidates. It's scary how many never take the time to get to know them. It's easy, it's a mouse click away. Get off your ass, pull ur head out of the sand and look from multiple sides. Ughhh.....

  41. Tina Kotek was just here in Bend yesterday and will be here over the next few days. She's whip smart, and this 'out of touch' thing is a Republican talking point.

  42. Johnson wants to portray herself as an independent who trends left, but every time she opens her mouth, Trumpism spills out. "Woke this." "Woke that." A perpetual whiner who offers no concrete ideas - just a lot of complaints.

  43. Out of the 3 options I have it’s still a toss up between Kotek and Johnson… but def not voting for Drazan that’s for sure.

  44. Obviously you are free to vote how you want but just a heads up that currently the statistical models show Johnson with a less than 1% chance of winning.

  45. Same for me. My sticking point is Kotek's backing of requiring gun owners to be permitted before they can purchase. While I'm all for sensible gun control legislation, I don't think that is the answer. But im also not sure that's enough to swing my vote to Johnson. It's tough since they're so similar with their ideals on other issues.

  46. I'm of the opinion that more people should acknowledge their vote doesn't count, and respond in kind by making damn sure that they're represented by any means necessary.

  47. Who cares? If Kotek wins it's more of the same stupid shit we've had for decades. If Drazen wins it's more of the same stupid shit because she'd never be able to get anything past the Dem controlled house & senate.

  48. I genuinely believe Johnson is the best middle-of-the-road candidate. Unfortunately being trapped in the two party system, our choices seem to be religious republican zealot or an excessively left democrat, realistically.

  49. Kotek would be a disaster, on the other hand I hate downtown Portland and want it to fail. So Silver Lining maybe ?

  50. Betsy is not an option. A vote for her is a vote for Drazan, and Drazan isn't taking office no matter how many votes she gets. Kotek is the only choice, and we need to DEMAND ranked choice voting.

  51. Kotek seems to be completely ignorant and out of touch on the homelessness and drug addiction issues plaguing our state. If she wins we will absolutely see more of the same.

  52. Both are garbage candidates! The policies that they support will not change the status of homelessness,drugs,high rent and high food prices.

  53. Tina Kotek is everything wrong with Oregon. Need a moderate liberal. Tobias Read was the perfect choice but ultralibs can’t vote for a cis white male over Tina for obvious reasons. Down with the Patriarchy amirite?

  54. It’d be genuinely funny if that was a real reason someone didn’t vote Read. Anyways… I voted against Read because he’s part of this State’s corrupt-ass white collar criminal syndicate, and a Ted Wheeler protégé. Seriously, fuck that guy.

  55. No way I can, in good consequence, give my vote to a Kate Brown clone. Arguably worse in many regards. Pretty obvious Oregonians are satisfied with our current trajectory, and that’s what she represents.

  56. No way she wins. We’re SICK of the path Oregon has been headed down. She’ll be Kate 2.0. If Oregonians are happy with endless tent cities, human waste, and used syringes filling our streets, they should definitely vote for her though.

  57. Drazen should be the governor and I’m not saying because I’m republican but oregons suffered a lot through the years just as California has and I think it’s time to change that a little . Atleast give a shot to somewhere where there will be actions instead of words . I’m new to oregon and I love Oregon but there are a lot of simple small things that need to be changed and kept in order . I’m mexican and I’m a libertarian and I’m not religious at all so it doesn’t make sense for me to vote for drazen but I will just because I know it will do more common good than bad

  58. Drazan has essentially stated she is happy to force her religious beliefs down the throats of everyone in the state. She believes that the minority of people in rural Oregon should have control over the majority in the suburban and urban areas. She believes that women should have to submit to her twisted version of biblical law. She opposes conservation measures and any attempt to address the climate crisis. She wants to actively take rights away from the LGBT community. She has engaged in underhanded political tactics to make sure legislation supported by the majority of Oregonians is not enacted. How could you vote for somebody like this?

  59. Absolutely not. Do you know how poorly some counties/cities are run? I live in Jackson, and if the county government got MORE power, they'd just run it more like their own personal fief. They just tried to juice the system by getting the assessor position to be appointed rather than voted on, and spent a shitload on advertising to pat themselves on the back over a pretty bad preparation for and response to the Alameda fire.

  60. Kotek does not care about what the voters think and will do whatever she wants much like Kate does. Kotek stated she did not want to go against what the voters wanted when asked about repealing the law decriminalizing drugs. But she had no problem going against the voters when she pushed and got the law allowing illegals to have driver's licenses even though the voters had said no. Then she was listing as an accomplishment of how she basically eliminated the death penalty in Oregon. No interest in taking it to the voters who were not asking for it to be eliminated, as speaker she just bypassed the voters and pushed to have the laws changed so no more death penalty. Whether you're for the death penalty or not we do not need or want a governor who forgets who they work for and who they represent. No idea which of the other two would make a good governor, but I can say I will not be voting for Kotek.

  61. Libertarians are constitutionalists that believe in the very minimal regulation of humanity. Meaning, all the liberal ideals that conservatives don't agree with are free game and it's between you and your god, or lack thereof. Conservatives still believe in regulation. Libertarians do not.

  62. I’ve seen a lot more Johnson signs than Kotek or Drazen. I think Betsy is gonna surprise everyone and win

  63. Yes you fucking liberal idiots, keep on voting for The Democratic Way. You will get the exact same bullshit that you're living through now. Evidently you want more homeless, higher prices, less safety, more drugs and pitiful education for children. Yes, keep voting the exact same way.

  64. Well, beings we have had mail in ballots as our only way to vote as long as I can remember. It's obviously going to be a Democrat win.

  65. Well if Drazen does win it will be by a slim margin and I expect a repeat of Washington's 2004 Governors election. Oh a bag of mail washed up on the Colombia River shore with ballots in it.

  66. I wish that folks weren't boiling down the race to Kotek vs Drazen. I think Johnson would make a fantastic governor for Oregon, but it's extremely difficult to get past Republican vs Democrat.

  67. I feel like Kotek has it in the bag. Sure, on paper Drazan has a legitimate chance, and maybe the polls will reflect that. I just think Betsy’s plan to split the vote and get Drazan elected is gonna end up backfiring in a hilarious way. I don’t know anyone that plans to vote Drazan, and I know plenty of conservatives.

  68. Drazen reminds me of Sara Palin and I think we all would be worse off than today. She will attempt to eradicate our states rights regarding cannabis and or production due to her beliefs

  69. Kotek. When you put a gun to our head like drazen most of us will show up in vote in line with the party. But few are excited to perform their civic duty like this.

  70. I watched the debates in their entirety. It’s VERY obvious Oregonians aren’t happy with the current trajectory. Kotek will be Kate Brown 2.0. I don’t think people want that anymore. Honestly, given the totality of circumstances, I’d vote for ANYBODY over her. Please Oregonians, don’t let party loyalty factor into your decision maker more than rational thought. You know this state can’t take 4 more years of this.

  71. The only way anyone should consider Drazan, or any other Republican, is if they completely disavow Donald Trump. Until they do so, they have no business asking Oregonians to vote for them. If they are willing to disavow Trump, Oregon is ripe for the taking and some Republican might have a shot at being the next Tom McCall, but I am not seeing this Republican candidate do that.

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